Does your flight keep getting cancelled? Let data science show you how to select a flight that is regularly flying into Australia.
Number of flights by destination, airline and flight number
Firstly, these are the all passenger flights that have been flying into Australia (see chart below). Please note:
- Bar size: The size of the bar shows the number of flights for each flight number.
- Filters: Use the filters on the right on the chart to filter by your choice of month, airline or city of destination or origin.
However, there is a factor more important than how many times a flight is actually successfully arriving: how challenging it is to get a seat on that flight. Notice the chart below. All the flights with a positive number of seats – these are the number of economy seats left after the first and business class seats have been filled. If a flight has seats in the negative – these are the number of first and business class seats that were not filled on that flight. For example, a flight with -15 (negative 15) economy seats left, means 15 seats first or business class seats were unable to be filled.
You will notice that:
- All flights to Adelaide have economy seats left after all first and business class seats have been taken, even with the current July 14 cap (which is the half the previous cap).
- Flights to Brisbane during June had more economy seats filled than during May (this was mainly helped by the dramatic increase in the arrival cap for Brisbane from June 1 to July 13).
- In August (look at the red bars), due the caps being halved from July 14 and airlines not decreasing the number of flights, flights to Australian cities (except Adelaide) could not even fill all the first and business class seats.
Adelaide seems be best choice if you want the best chance that your seat will not be cancelled
Adelaide seems be best choice if you want the best chance that your seat will not be cancelled. However, even to Adelaide, passengers with economy seats who are over the quota allowed for that flight will be bumped off the flight. To give yourself the best chances of flying, buy a first/business class ticket.
It was expected that when the arrival caps were halved from 14 July 2021, that the number of flights would similarly reduce. It was thought that airlines might need to “group their passenger allowances into fewer, more financially sustainable flights” (Guardian news article). However, this has not been the case. (See my post Did halving arrival caps halve the number of flights?)
Therefore, if you are able to book onto one of the flights that have been consistently flying in over the last few months (see the charts above), there is a good chance your flight will continue to fly in.
